H1N1 Death Toll May Be 15 Times Higher Than Previously Reported

An Algerian doctor prepares a vaccine dose against the H1N1 flu in 2009 in a hospital in Algiers. CNN

Swine Flu Outbreak 15 Times Deadlier Than Thought, Study Finds -- MSNBC/MyHealthNewsDaily

The number of people who died of swine flu during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic may be about 15 times higher than originally calculated, according to a new study.

Researchers now estimate that 284,500 people worldwide died of infection from the H1N1 virus, commonly called the swine flu, between April 2009 and August 2010. At the time, 18,500 deaths had been laboratory-confirmed as being due to swine flu, according to the study from researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). It was expected that the original number would be revised upward, the researchers said.

In estimating the true number of deaths, the researchers gave a range of 151,700 to 575,400.

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More News On Reports That The Swine Flu Outbreak Was 15 Times Deadlier Than Thought

2009 swine flu outbreak was 15 times deadlier: study -- Reuters
Swine Flu Deaths May Have Been 15 Times Higher Than Reported -- Bloomberg Businessweek
Global H1N1 death toll may be 15 times higher than previously reported -- CNN
Swine flu likely claimed quarter of a million lives: study -- AFP
Swine flu pandemic killed 15 times more than thought -- New Scientist
H1N1 Swine Flu May Have Killed 15 Times More Than First Said -- ABC News
Swine flu death toll could be as high as 600,000, say experts -- Scotsman

Avian Flu Paper On Mutant-Flu Research To Be Published

Dutch authorities say work on an avian flu virus that is transmissible between mammals cannot be published without an export permit. MEDICAL RF.COM/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY

Mutant-Flu Researcher Plans To Publish Even Without Permission -- Nature

Virologist plans to defy Dutch government over export permit requirement for avian flu paper.

Ron Fouchier, a researcher at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, whose work on H5N1 avian flu virus has been at the centre of controversy, says that he is prepared to defy government demands and submit the work to Science without seeking the export permit that the Dutch government says is required.

A government official says that such an action could incur penalties including up to six years' imprisonment.

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My Comment: Pandora's Box is now open.

Human: Contagion: Is a Killer Virus Out There? (Video)

Despite Bio-Terrorism Fears, H5N1 Research Will Be 'Eventually' Published

An image taken through an electronic microscope of the H5N1 virus, also known as the "bird flu." Virologist Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam has developed a new mutation of the H5N1 virus. Outside the lab, the disease has only been transmitted from animals to humans. Fouchier's mutation makes it airborne, creating the possibility of human-to-human transmission. CDC / dapd

WHO Delays Hugely Significant Decision On Whether To Publish Details Of Lethal Man-Made Flu That Could Kill Half The People It Infects -- Daily Mail

* H5N1 bird flu virus kills half of humans that contract it
* Research into more contagious forms of virus
* Editor says 'we have to publish in complete form'
* Insists publication is essential to create vaccine

The World Health Organisation has delayed its decision as to whether controversial research into a dangerous new man-made mutant form of the bird flu virus should be made public.

Scientists, health officials and science journal editors have this week been locked in talks on whether the study should be released amid fears it could be exploited by bioterrorists.

The controversial research shows how to make a mutant strain of the H5N1 virus, which kills roughly half of those who contract it, more contagious.

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More News On The Decision To Delay The Publication Of H5N1 Research By A Few More Months

Despite Safety Worries, Work on Deadly Flu to Be Released -- New York Times
WHO on bird flu research: Publish in full... someday -- L.A. Times
Bird flu study to be published in full, but after delay -- CBC
WHO meeting calls for mutant-flu research to be published ‘in full.’ -- Nature
Journal's concern over bird flu research -- BBC
Avian Flu Experts Agree ‘Pauses’ on Publication, Research Should Continue -- Wall Street Journal
Experts delay call on releasing controversial H5N1 work -- BBC
Bird flu research to be published in full -- New Scientist
Bird Flu Paper Publication Delayed -- The Scientist
Mutant Bird Flu Studies Should Be Revealed in Full, Experts Say -- Live Science
Scientists weigh terror threat against public health in publishing dilemma -- Globe And Mail
Larger discussion needed on viruses that can help and harm, expert says -- Margaret Munro, Postmedia News

Pandora's Box Has Already Been Opened For Bio-Terrorists

Details Of Secret Experiments On Deadly Man-Made Bird Flu That Kills Over Half Of The People It Infects WILL Get Out, Says Bioterrorism Watchdog -- Daily Mail

* 'The infrastructure to stop a pandemic is not there,' says Professor Paul Keim

Details of secret experiments by scientists who have created the most deadly form of bird flu in the lab will inevitably be leaked - potentially into the hands of terrorists - an expert has warned.

A furore erupted in December over the decision by the U.S National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NSABB) to censor details of the virus being made public, which can be transmitted by coughs and sneezes.

But now the head of that board claims they will enter the public domain anyway.

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More News On The Fears Of Bird-Flu Research

No way of stopping leak of deadly new flu, says terror chief -- The Independent
Experts warn that there's no way to stop deadly new flu -- Aol.com
Fear of Terrorists Keeps Man-made Avian Flu Under Wraps -- Voice of America
Recommendation to censor bird flu research driven by fears of terrorism -- Washington Post
Can Scientific Censorship Stop Bioterrorism? -- Ronald Bailey, Reason
Hope or Fear: The Opposing Ideas of H5N1 Bird Flu Researchers -- Hans Villarica, The Atlantic

Fears Of Bioterrorism Halts Research On Mutant Bird Flu

Bioterror Fears Halt Research On Mutant Bird Flu -- BBC

Scientists who created a more deadly strain of bird flu have temporarily stopped their research amid fears it could be used by bioterrorists.

In a letter published in Science and Nature, the teams call for an "international forum" to debate the risks and value of the studies.

US authorities last month asked the authors of the research to redact key details in forthcoming publications.

A government advisory panel suggested the data could be used by terrorists.

Biosecurity experts fear a mutant form of the virus could spark a pandemic deadlier than the 1918-19 Spanish flu outbreak that killed up to 40 million people.

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More News On Scientists Suspending For 60 Days Their Research On Mutant Bird Flu

Researchers Pause Work on Bird Flu That Could Kill Hundreds of Millions -- ABC News
Fears of mutant virus escape halt bird flu study -- Reuters
Deadly Bird Flu Research to Be Paused Over Concern About Risks -- Bloomberg
Bird flu scientists suspend work amid epidemic fears -- The Guardian
Scientists call moratorium on study of deadly bird flu -- L.A. Times
Scientists Agree to Halt Work on Dangerous Bird Flu Strain -- Time
Scientists to Pause Research on Deadly Strain of Bird Flu -- New York Times
Controversial Killer Flu Research Paused -- Wired
Flu scientists agree to 60-day ‘pause’ in bird-flu research -- Washington Post
Scientists Call for 60-Day Suspension of Mutant Flu Research -- Scientific America

Was The Threat of H1N1 Flu Exaggerated?

Win McNamee / Getty

From Time Magazine:

By the summer of 2009, shortly after the H1N1 flu pandemic had first emerged, there was a waiting list for the first several million doses of the forthcoming new flu vaccine. At the head of the line, naturally, were the world's richest nations. "Again we see the advantage of affluence," said Margaret Chan, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO), at a news conference on July 14. "Again we see access denied by an inability to pay." Describing H1N1 as "entirely new and highly contagious," Chan scolded rich countries at the time for hoarding the "lion's share" of the global H1N1-vaccine supply.

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Swine Flu Less Contagious Than Other Pandemic Strains

From USA Today:

MILWAUKEE (AP) — How contagious is swine flu? Less than the novel viruses that have caused big world outbreaks in the past, new research suggests.

If someone in your home has swine flu, your odds of catching it are about one in eight, although children are twice as susceptible as adults, the study found. It is one of the first big scientific attempts to find out how much the illness spreads in homes versus at work or school, and who is most at risk.

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The H1N1 Pandemic: Is A Second Wave Possible?

A woman wears a mask in Beijing on Dec. 2, 2009. Peter Parks / AFP / Getty

From Time Magazine:

Since early November, cases of H1N1 have continued to decline nationwide, and scientists keeping track of the numbers say that as pandemics go, 2009 H1N1 may turn out to be a mild one — at least for the time being.

The question now on health officials' minds is: Will there be a second wave of cases in the new year? The answer depends on whom you ask. "We took an informal poll of about a dozen of some of the world's leading experts in influenza," Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), told reporters recently. "About half of them said, Yes, we think it's likely that we'll have another surge in cases. About half said, No, we think it's not likely. And one said, Flip a coin."

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Swine Flu Has Hit About 1 In 6 Americans, CDC Says

From The L.A. Times:

Although nearly 10,000 have died from H1N1, that is a lower mortality rate than in regular flu seasons, the CDC chief says. What's different is that more children and adults under 50 have died, he say.

About 50 million Americans had contracted pandemic H1N1 influenza through Nov. 14, according to the newest estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Thursday -- meaning that about 15% of the entire country has been infected, about one in every six people.

"That still leaves most people not having been infected and still susceptible," CDC Director Dr. Thomas R. Frieden said at a news conference. The agency also reported that more than 200,000 people had been hospitalized and nearly 10,000 had died.

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Arming The Immune System Against H1N1

Image: Defense mechanism: Researchers creating a new vaccine against H1N1 hope to harness the power of the immune system's dendritic cells (one such cell is shown above in blue), which are responsible for directing the body's immune response. Credit: Oliver Schwartz, Institute Pasteur / Science Photo Library

From Technology Review:

Researchers are working to treat pandemic flu by recruiting a patient's own immune cells.

Viruses multiply incredibly quickly once they've infected their victim--so fast that antiviral medications such as Tamiflu are only effective if given during the first few days of an infection. After that, the viral load is just too high for a single drug to fight off. But researchers are working on a treatment for the H1N1 virus (or swine flu) that uses a different approach. Rather than disabling the virus with a drug, they're creating a vaccine that can activate and steer a patient's own immune cells to attack the invader.

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Norwegian Scientists Detect Mutated Form Of Swine Flu

From The Washington Post:

Norwegian scientists detect mutated form of swine flu.

Scientists in Norway announced Friday they had detected a mutated form of the swine flu virus in two patients who died of the flu and a third who was severely ill.

In a statement, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health said the mutation "could possibly make the virus more prone to infect deeper in the airways and thus cause more severe disease," such as pneumonia.

The institute said there was no indication that the mutation would hinder the ability of the vaccine to protect people from becoming infected or impair the effectiveness of antiviral drugs in treating people who became infected.

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British Scientists Testing Ukrainian 'Super Flu' That Has Killed 189 People

Ukraine's Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (L) visits flu victims
at a hospital in the western Ukrainian city of Lutsk

From The Daily Mail:

British scientists are examining the strain of swine flu behind a deadly Ukrainian outbreak to see if the virus has mutated.

A total of 189 people have died and more than one million have been infected in the country.

Some doctors have likened the symptoms to those seen in many of the victims of the Spanish flu which caused millions of deaths world-wide after the World War One.

An unnamed doctor in western Ukraine told of the alarming effects of the virus.

He said: 'We have carried out post mortems on two victims and found their lungs are as black as charcoal.

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Behind The CDC's Soaring H1N1 Death Totals

From Time Magazine:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released on Thursday updated estimates of the number of H1N1 infections and deaths in the U.S. According to the new figures, about 4,000 Americans, including 540 children, have died of H1N1 flu, and 2 million people have been infected since April, when the novel flu virus first surfaced. The new death toll, which encompasses data through Oct. 17, represents a tripling of CDC estimates issued just last week; the number of deaths in children quadruples last week's figures. But the increase does not mean that the disease has suddenly become more deadly or severe, according to health officials, who say they are not surprised by the higher numbers.

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Flu Spray vs. Shot: Is One Better?

From Discovery News:

My four-year-old got her swine flu vaccination yesterday. At the time, I was relieved when the school nurse pulled out a spray rather than a syringe.
Flu-spray-278x225

There were no tears -- or at least fewer than if she had gotten a shot.

But then I started to wonder -- is this really as good as the real thing ... that is, the needle?

Apparently I'm not alone. My neighborhood parent list serve has been peppered with posts from parents wondering the same thing.

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A Simple Sneeze Raises Fear of Death

From Live Science:

In the current atmosphere of heightened concern over the H1N1 virus, the everyday sneeze can trigger fears of totally unrelated hazards, including heart attacks, new research suggests.

An everyday achoo reminds people that swine flu is lurking, the researchers found. That intensifies worries about flu. From there, people rely on current feelings to assess unrelated health risks and even policy decisions, the study found.

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I Can Has Swine Flu? A Cat Comes Down with H1N1

Photo: Michael Waine / Corbis

From Time Magazine:

For all the attention that has whirled around H1N1 in recent months, it seems that one vulnerable, and furry, population may have been overlooked: the family pet.

On Wednesday, the Iowa Department of Public Health reported the first confirmed case of H1N1 in a house pet, a 13-year-old domestic shorthaired cat. The animal likely contracted the virus from its owners, veterinarians say, since two of the three family members living in the cat's household had recently suffered from influenza-like illness. Late last week, when the cat came down with flu-like symptoms — malaise, loss of appetite — its owners brought it to Iowa State University College of Veterinary Medicine for treatment. The family mentioned to the vet that they had also recently battled illness, which led to testing the pet for H1N1.

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Policy Decisions Slow H1N1 Vaccine Production

From Future Pundit:

Why is H1N1 influenza vaccine coming out so slowly in the United States? Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former FDA deputy commissioner, says a few policy decisions slow the production of vaccine.

Why do adjuvants matter? An adjuvanted H1N1 vaccine being used in Europe contains 3.75 micrograms of vaccine stock. The same vaccine in the U.S., without the adjuvant, requires 15 micrograms of vaccine for equal potency. If we used adjuvants, we could have had four times the number of shots with the same raw material.

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Timeline: The Secret History Of Swine Flu

16 August 1957: a nurse at Montefiore Hospital gets the first
Asian flu vaccine shot in New York (Image: Associated Press)

From New Scientist:

Six months ago, swine flu emerged as a massive threat to global health. It seemed to come out of nowhere, but our timeline explains how the origins of the H1N1 pandemic go back more than a century

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CDC: 5.7M Swine Flu Cases In First Few Months

From Time Magazine:

(ATLANTA) — As many as 5.7 million Americans were infected with swine flu during the first few months of the pandemic, according to estimates from federal health officials.

Scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that between 1.8 million and 5.7 million Americans were infected from mid-April through July 23. The figures are the CDC's most specific calculation to date.

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