Showing posts with label hurricanes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hurricanes. Show all posts

Thursday, May 21, 2009

NOAA Sees Average 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season


From Yahoo News/Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be fairly average with as many as seven hurricanes expected to form, U.S. government forecasters predicted on Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast nine to 14 named storms this season, with four to seven developing into hurricanes. One to three could be major ones of Category 3 or higher with winds above 110 miles per hour (177 km per hour), the agency said in its annual forecast.

Last year was one of the most active seasons on record, with 16 tropical storms and eight hurricanes.

Read more ....

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Global Hurricane Activity Has Decreased To The Lowest Level In 30 Years.

(Click the Above Image to Enlarge)
Figure: Global 24-month running sum time-series of
Accumulated Cyclone Energy updated through March 12, 2009.


From Watts Up With That?

Very important: global hurricane activity includes the 80-90 tropical cyclones that develop around the world during a given calendar year, including the 12-15 that occur in the North Atlantic (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean included). The heightened activity in the North Atlantic since 1995 is included in the data used to create this figure.

As previously reported here and here at Climate Audit, and chronicled at my Florida State Global Hurricane Update page, both Northern Hemisphere and overall Global hurricane activity has continued to sink to levels not seen since the 1970s. Even more astounding, when the Southern Hemisphere hurricane data is analyzed to create a global value, we see that Global Hurricane Energy has sunk to 30-year lows, at the least. Since hurricane intensity and detection data is problematic as one goes back in time, when reporting and observing practices were different than today, it is possible that we underestimated global hurricane energy during the 1970s. See notes at bottom to avoid terminology discombobulation.

Read more ....

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Atlantic Hurricane Season Blows Away Records

This September 2008 NASA GOES satellite image shows Hurricane Ike seen at 1225 GMT. The Atlantic hurricane season in 2008 is coming to a close after producing 16 storms, including eight hurricanes, and inflicting record damage in the United States, a report by university researchers said on Wednesday. (AFP/HO NASA/File/Ho)

From Yahoo News/AP:

WASHINGTON – The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Sunday, seemed to strike the United States and Cuba as if on redial, setting at least five weather records for persistence and repeatedly striking the same areas.

"It was pretty relentless in a large number of big strikes," said Georgia Tech atmospheric sciences professor Judith Curry. "We just didn't have the huge monster where a lot of people lost their lives, but we had a lot of damage, a lot of damage."

Data on death and damage are still being calculated, but the insurance industry recorded at least $10.6 billion in losses this hurricane season. That includes $8.1 billion in insured damage from Hurricane Ike, which ranked as the seventh most expensive catastrophe in the United States history, according to Mike Barry of the Insurance Information Institute in New York.

Read more ....

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Invention: Hurricane Pacifier

Releasing smoke particles into the lower reaches of a hurricane can shift energy to its periphery and reduce the severity of the storm, say the authors of a new patent application (Image: WIPO)

From New Scientist Tech:

Interest in hurricane mitigation has peaked since Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005, and any means of limiting the damage wrought by these huge storms would be welcomed by governments and vulnerable populations alike.

Now an Israeli team says it has developed a way to take the sting out of the storms. Their new patent application says seeding hurricanes with smoke particles could lower wind speeds enough to mitigate their destructive potential.

A hurricane's destructive potential is proportionally related to the strongest winds inside it, and only a small reduction in wind speed is needed to dramatically reduce the damage it causes.

Hurricanes derive their immense power from warm waters on the surface of the sea. As the water evaporates, it rises into the hurricane and eventually condenses and falls as rain, releasing its latent heat energy as it does so – a process known as "heat cycling".

Daniel Rosenfeld and colleagues at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem say injecting smoke into the lower parts of a hurricane causes water vapour to condense at a lower altitude than usual, and form droplets that are too small to fall as rain.

Read more ....

Monday, September 29, 2008

Sunspot-Hurricane Link Proposed

From Nature News:

Controversial research hints that solar cycle affects cyclone intensity.

A new study suggests that more sunspots mean less intense hurricanes on Earth. But many hurricane experts are cool on the idea.

James Elsner, a climatologist at Florida State University in Tallahassee, has analyzed hurricane data going back more than a century. He says he has identified a 10- to 12-year cycle in hurricane records that corresponds to the solar cycle, in which the Sun's magnetic activity rises and falls.

The idea is that increased solar activity - associated with sunspots - means more ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's upper atmosphere. That warms the airs aloft and decreases the temperature differential between high and low elevations that otherwise would fuel hurricanes.

"Our results indicate that there is an effect in the intensity of storms due to the higher temperatures aloft," says Elsner, who published the results on 19 September in Geophysical Research Letters1.

He says the statistical analysis suggests a 10% decrease in hurricane intensity for every 100 sunspots. At the peak of its cycle, the Sun might exhibit around 250 sunspots.

Read more ....

Saturday, September 27, 2008

In A Storm Surge, Elevation Is The Key To Survive

Ike Obliterated Most Homes, But Spared One On Church Street -- Houston Chronicle

There's a new landmark in Gilchrist, one of the towns on Bolivar Peninsula that Hurricane Ike ravaged and left for dead.

The fire station is gone. The post office is gone. Every structure on the gulf side of this tight-knit community is gone.

Except for one house.

Standing tall, as if in defiance of Ike's windy, watery wrath, is the home of Pam and Warren Adams, who built the place in 2005 after Hurricane Rita destroyed their older home on the same lot.

On Friday, the first day many residents were allowed back on the peninsula, the couple returned to Church Street, ready to help neighbors whose homes no longer stood with theirs.

"I think I'm going through survivor's guilt," said Pam Adams, even though her home is uninhabitable, its main floor covered with mud brought in by the storm surge. "But the fact that the house is standing, that it survived, is awesome. Gilchrist is still here. It's faith and hopefulness."

The Adams had already been back to see their house, so they knew what to expect. But for the people who live west of Rollover Pass — the residents and homeowners returning to the peninsula for the first time since the hurricane — it was surreal.

Read more ....

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Why People Ignore Hurricane Evacuation Warnings

Boats and debris are piled up Saturday, Sept. 13, 2008 in Galveston, Texas after Hurricane Ike hit the area. AP Photo/David J. Phillip, Pool

From Live Science:

As Hurricane Ike's floodwaters begin to recede from Galveston, Texas, and other areas of the Gulf Coast, emergency responders are surveying the storm's damage and rescuing thousands of residents who ignored evacuation orders.

There are many reasons why some people don't heed evacuation notices — some think they can ride out the winds and surging waters, while others simply have nowhere to go and no way to leave. Still others remember unnecessary evacuations from botched forecasts and enter a "boy who cried 'wolf'" mentality.

"And then some people just don't perceive the risk to be that high," Rebecca Morss of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., told LiveScience.

Read more ....

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Full Coverage Of Hurricane Ike: Hurricane Blogs, News, And Webcam Links -- This Post Is Bumped To The Top Of Cool Science News Till Sunday

Tracking Hurricane Ike







HURRICANE BLOGS, NEWS, WEBCAMS, AND LINKS

Hurricane/Weather News
Storm Pulse
National Hurricane Center -- Home Site
National Hurricane Center -- Satellite Shots
National Hurricane Center -- Sign Up For Email Advisories
Weather.com -- Hurricane Central News Center
Weather.com -- Hurricane Central News Center Updates
NOLA -- New Orleans, Louisiana news
Houston Chronicle -- Hurricane News
NOAA Satellite And Information Service -- Home Page
Crown Weather Services -- Weather Aggregator

Texas/Louisiana Weather Observations
Coastal Texas Observations
Southwest Louisiana Observations
Southeast Louisiana Observations
Ike Marine Weather Observations

Weather And Hurricane Blogs
Weather Underground
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Weather Nerd
Hurricane Track
Miami Hurricane

Blogs For Ike
Twitter search for “Hurricane Ike”
Google Blog Search for “Hurricane Ike”
BlogPulse search for “Hurricane Ike”
Flickr photo/video search for “Hurricane Ike”
YouTube video search for “Hurricane Ike”
HurricanePreparedness.org

News Links For Hurricane Ike
Global Storm Tracker -- Yahoo News
Weather News -- Yahoo News
Hurricane Ike -- Yahoo News (Recent Stories on Ike)
Hurricane Ike -- Google News (Stories For The Past 24 Hours)
News and Newspaper Websites in Louisiana -- ABYZ News Directory
News And Newspaper Websites In Mississippi -- ABYZ News Directory
News And Newspaper Websites In Texas -- ABYZ News Directory

Texas News Media Links (Hat Tip to Crown Weather)
Live News Cameras Hurricane Ike Center
Hurricane Ike Live TV Coverage Wall (FLHurricane)
Hurricane Ike Live TV Feeds From All Houston Stations
Live Hurricane Ike Coverage From All Houston Stations (MaroonSpoon)
Hurricane Ike Resources From OneStorm.org
Broadcast Coverage From Internet Partnership Radio
Broadcast Coverage From Hurricane City
Broadcast Coverage From The Weather Radio Broadcast Network
Texas News Media Links
KTRH AM 740 Radio Houston
MyFox Houston
KHOU TV Houston, TX
ABC 13 TV Houston, TX
Channel 2 TV Houston, TX
Houston/Galveston, Texas Radio Scanner Feed
KGBT TV 4 Local News From Harlingen, Texas
KRGV TV 5 Local News From Weslaco, Texas
Local News From KIII TV 3 From Corpus Christi, Texas
Local News From KRISTV From Corpus Christi, Texas
KURV 780 AM Talk Radio From Mcallen, Texas
Q94.5 Brownsville, TX
KQXX 105.5 From Brownsville, Texas
Wild 104 From Brownsville, Texas

Texas/Louisiana Webcam Links (Hat Tip To Crown Weather)
Webcamplaza.net
Louisiana Webcams
Texas Webcams
Louisiana Webcams
Texas Webcams (WeatherMatrix)
Louisiana Webcams (ABC Webcams)
Texas Webcams (ABC Webcams)
Upper Texas Coast Webcams (HurricaneCity)
Brownsville, Texas-Matamoras, Mexico Webcams
Corpus Christi, Texas Webcam #1
Corpus Christi, Texas Webcam #2
Freeport, TX Webcam
Galveston, TX Webcams
Galveston, TX Webcam (WeatherUnderground)
Galveston-Houston, TX Webcams
Houston, TX Traffic Cams
Houston, TX Webcams (KHOU TV)
Houston, TX Webcams (Ch. 2 TV)
Houston, TX Webcam (WeatherUnderground)
KRGV Tv5 Webcam, Weslaco, Texas
Matagorda Bay Webcam
Port Aransas, Texas Webcam #1
Port Aransas, Texas Webcam #2
Rio Grande Webcam
South Padre Island, Texas Webcams
South Padre Island, Texas Webcam #1
South Padre Island, Texas Webcam #2
South Padre Island, Texas Webcam #3
South Padre Island, Texas Webcam #4
Webcam From A Platform In The Western Gulf of Mexico (NDBC)

World's Strongest Hurricanes Could Be Getting Stronger

Gustav and Hanna spin in the Caribbean Sea last week. A study released today found that the strongest Atlantic hurricanes have become stronger due to global warming over the past 25 years.

From USA Today:

The strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean have become more intense due to global warming over the past 25 years, according to a new study in Wednesday's edition of the British journal Nature. The findings add fuel to the simmering argument in the meteorological community about the Earth's changing climate, and its relationship to the power of tropical systems worldwide.

Scientists from Florida State University and the University of Wisconsin-Madison analyzed satellite data from nearly 2,000 tropical cyclones around the world from 1981 to 2006, and found that the strongest storms are getting stronger, especially over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.

Tropical cyclones are the umbrella term for hurricanes (in the Atlantic and east Pacific), typhoons (in the West Pacific) and cyclones (in the Indian).

"As seas warm, the ocean has more energy that can be converted to tropical cyclone wind," FSU professor of geography and study lead author James B. Elsner explained.

Read more ....

The Science Behind A Storm Surge

Hurricane Ike, still forming in the Gulf of Mexico, caused floods near Surfside Beach, Texas September 12, 2008. Hurricane Ike closed in on the Texas coast on Friday, pushing a wall of water that weather officials warned could bring certain death to those who did not heed mandatory evacuation orders.

From MSNBC:

As Hurricane Ike races toward Texas, it is pushing a mound of water in front of it that could inundate parts of the Gulf coast with up to 25 feet of water. The surge involves some incredible feats of physics, and in many hurricanes it’s the leading cause of death.

Galveston Island, Texas, destroyed at least once before by a major hurricane in 1900, began to see the Ike-related water creeping up along its beaches Thursday and by Friday, parts of the city of Galveston were flooded by the surge coming in from Galveston Bay.

And, "it's only going to get worse," said Lance Wood, the Science and Operations Officer for the Houston/Galveston National Weather Service (NWS) office.

Read more ....

A Guide To Hurricanes


From Scientific American:

Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike: What's next for the U.S.? What causes nature's destructive storms? How do scientists study and predict them? How are they linked to global warming?

Scientific American has compiled an extensive and detailed examination of hurricanes and what the future may hold for us. The link to read this guide is here.

With Ike, Size Matters For Killer Storm Surge


From My Way News/AP

Hurricane Ike's gargantuan size - not its strength - will likely push an extra large storm surge inland in a region already prone to it, experts said Thursday.

Ike's giant girth means more water piling up on Texas and Louisiana coastal areas for a longer time, topped with bigger waves. So storm surge - the prime killer in hurricanes - will be far worse than a typical storm of Ike's strength, the National Hurricane Center said.

And because coastal waters in Texas and Louisiana are so shallow, storm surge is usually larger there than in other regions, according to storm experts. A 1900 hurricane following a similar track to Ike inundated Galveston Island, killing at least 8,000 people - America's deadliest storm.

"It's a good recipe for surge," said Benton McGee, supervisory hydrologist at the U.S. Geological Survey's storm surge center in Ruston, La. "We're already seeing water being piled up in the Gulf. On top of that you're going to have water forced into the bays along the coast."

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20-foot surge - a rapid rising of water inundating areas and moving inland - for a large swath of Texas and the Louisiana coasts. Above that, the center predicts "large and dangerous battering waves." Waves could be 50 feet tall, said hurricane center spokesman and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen.

Read more ....

Thursday, September 11, 2008

With Hurricane Ike, Size Matters For Killer Storm Surge


From My Way/AP:

Hurricane Ike's gargantuan size - not its strength - will likely push an extra large storm surge inland in a region already prone to it, experts said Thursday.

Ike's giant girth means more water piling up on Texas and Louisiana coastal areas for a longer time, topped with bigger waves. So storm surge - the prime killer in hurricanes - will be far worse than a typical storm of Ike's strength, the National Hurricane Center said.

And because coastal waters in Texas and Louisiana are so shallow, storm surge is usually larger there than in other regions, according to storm experts. A 1900 hurricane following a similar track to Ike inundated Galveston Island, killing at least 8,000 people - America's deadliest storm.

"It's a good recipe for surge," said Benton McGee, supervisory hydrologist at the U.S. Geological Survey's storm surge center in Ruston, La. "We're already seeing water being piled up in the Gulf. On top of that you're going to have water forced into the bays along the coast."

Read more ....

Tracking Hurricane Ike





Hurricane History: Texas A Top Target

The unnamed Category 4 hurricane that slammed into Galveston, Texas Sept. 8, 1900 remains the deadliest ever to hit the United States, having killed at least 8,000 people (estimates vary) and leveling virtually the entire town. Credit: NOAA

From Live Science:

Florida and Louisiana have had an unfair share of hurricane activity these past four years while Texas has generally taken less of a beating.

That could change this week as powerful Hurricane Ike takes aim at the Lone Star State.

In fact, Texas has been in the crosshairs many times before and is second only to Florida among U.S. states in the number of direct hits from hurricanes.

It seems ages ago now, but it was just seven weeks back that Dolly struck southern Texas, knocking down trees and power lines and causing extensive flooding of low-lying areas. Preliminary damage estimates were put at $1 billion or more. In some isolated areas, rainfall reached 16 inches. But Dolly was not a major hurricane. Its peak wind gusts were around 100 mph, and its eye made landfall, on July 23, in a largely uninhabited area.

The big storm that defines the hurricane threat to Texas was the disaster that struck Galveston more than a century ago.

Read more ....

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Hanna-Ike-Josephine Storm Trio Isn't An Anomaly

Hurricanes form through an exchange of warm, humid air and cold,
unstable air between the upper and lower atmosphere.


From The L.A. Times

Global warming can't be blamed for the trifecta -- headed toward the Southeast U.S. -- meteorologists say. It's just 'peak season in an active hurricane cycle.'

Despite the prospect of three major tropical storms heading toward the Southeastern United States, meteorologists say that the conga-line assault is not particularly unusual in the stormy history of the region.

"We're in peak season in an active hurricane cycle, and this is one of the results of that," said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and public affairs officer with the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"We've had incidents where four or five storms have been stacked up."

The first of the storms, Hanna, was expected to reach the Carolina coast late Friday or early today with sustained winds of 65 mph, according to the National Weather Service.

Hurricane Ike was on a path to reach southern Florida early next week, and Tropical Storm Josephine was on deck between the western coast of Africa and the Caribbean.

Read more ....

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Four Storms And More to Come


Tropical Quartet: 4 Storms With More To Come -- Yahoo News/AP

WASHINGTON - The tropics seem to be going crazy what with the remnants of Gustav, the new threat from Hanna, a strengthening Ike and newcomer Josephine. Get used to it.

Hurricane experts say all the weather ingredients, which normally fluctuate, are set on boil for the formation of storms. And it's going to stay that way for a while, they said.

Four named storms at the same time is a bit odd, but not unprecedented, meteorologists said. In 1995 five named storms lived simultaneously. And in 1998 there were four hurricanes at the same. But wait and see what happens next.

"Give us time, this is only Tuesday," said meteorologist Dennis Feltgren, spokesman for an all-too-busy hurricane center in Miami.

The peak of hurricane season isn't until Sept. 10 and this season already has 10 named storms, which is the long-term average for an entire season.

Read more ....

Monday, September 1, 2008

Are Hurricanes Getting More Violent?

(Click To Enlarge)

A Savage Force Of Nature – And Mounting Evidence They Are Becoming More Violent -- The Independent

Hurricanes are one of the most destructively powerful forces of nature and their existence depends on the surface temperature of the ocean reaching at least 26C. One obvious question is whether Gustav is the result of rising sea temperatures associated with global warming.

The simple answer is that it is virtually impossible to link any one weather event with climate change, yet there is mounting evidence that global warming could be causing hurricanes to increase in both frequency and intensity.

Read more ....

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Are We Prepared For Hurricane Gustav?

A television monitor near the floor of the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota shows a radar image of Hurricane Gustav as it bears down on the Louisiana coastline August 31, 2008. Planners have changed the convention agenda as the powerful storm approaches the U.S. with some Louisiana delegates returning to their home state. REUTERS/Rick Wilking

Opportunities Missed In Preparing For Gustav -- SciTech Blog (CNN)

If there were a Nobel Prize for “I told you so” it might go to Louisiana State University Professor Ivor van Heerden. He warned of the catastrophic consequences a major hurricane would have on New Orleans long before Hurricane Katrina.

And as Hurricane Gustav approaches, he says there were many lost opportunities to strengthen the region’s defenses in the three years since Katrina and Rita.

Among them:
*state and federal officials could have done a lot more to assess the weak links in the levee system, from New Orleans to Morgan City, Louisiana.
*more of an effort should have been made to repair damaged areas on levees. In many places, he said, there is bare soil, no grass at all on the levees.
*both before and after Katrina, he said the Army Corps of Engineers has not allowed enough outside experts to work with them to make improvements

Read more ....

How Do Hurricanes Energize Themselves

In order to preserve pool furniture from the potential winds of Hurricane Gustav, lawn chairs and tables were placed in the pool at Huntington Park in Beaumont, Texas. Sunday, Aug. 31, 2008. (AP Photo/The Enterprise, Guiseppe Barranco)

Gustav Headed For Current That Fuels
Big Storms -- Yahoo News/AP

WASHINGTON - The difference between a monster and a wimp for Gulf of Mexico hurricanes often comes down to a small patch of warm deep water that's easy to miss. It's called the Loop Current, and hurricane trackers say Gustav is headed right for it, reminiscent of Katrina.

Gustav is likely to reach this current late Saturday, experts say. What happens next will be crucial, maybe deadly.

If Gustav hits the Loop Current and lingers in that hot spot, watch out. If the storm misses it or zips through the current, then Gustav probably won't be much of a name to remember.

The meandering Loop Current, located in the southeastern gulf, provides loads of hurricane fuel. It was a key stopover for nearly all the Gulf Coast killers of the past, including Katrina and Camille, said Florida International University professor Hugh Willoughby, former director of the government's hurricane research division.

Read more ....